Washington Tightens Its Grip on Baghdad.. The Weapon of the Factions and Maliki's Nomination Under American Scrutiny

Iraq has returned to the forefront of American administration priorities, amidst clear messages linking the future of bilateral cooperation to sensitive files related to the formation of the new government and the monopolization of weapons by the state, reflecting a shift in the level of American engagement from monitoring to direct influence in shaping the power equation.
The Iraqi scene today intersects at three overlapping tracks: the crisis of selecting a prime minister, the file of armed factions, and the financial aspect related to Baghdad's relationship with American financial institutions, elements that make American pressure go beyond mere diplomatic positions.

Firm Messages from Washington

On February 12, 2026, the Chargé d'Affaires at the American Embassy in Baghdad, Joshua Harris, emphasized his country's readiness to use "all available tools" to confront what he described as destabilizing Iranian activities within Iraq.
These statements coincided with a clear American stance regarding the nomination of Nouri al-Maliki for the premiership, where Washington hinted at reevaluating its relationship with Baghdad should this option proceed, in a precedent considered the clearest in years.
The American messages included signals of potential sanctions on individuals or institutions, linking the level of political, security, and economic cooperation to specific criteria related to sovereignty and arms control.

Rearranging the Rules of the Game

Observers believe that what is happening goes beyond traditional pressure, reflecting an American decision to readjust internal balances that Washington considers have shifted in favor of a certain regional influence over the past years.
The American administration, which played a pivotal role in shaping the political system after 2003, seems today more inclined to use influential financial and economic tools, including regulating dollar transfers and tightening oversight on the banking sector, within a cohesive vision that combines security, economy, and politics.

The Arms and Factions Dilemma

The file of armed factions topped the priorities of American pressure, as Washington linked the future of the strategic partnership to the extent of progress in monopolizing weapons by the state.
In light of this reality, some factions have shown a preliminary willingness to transition to political work within constitutional frameworks, proposing reciprocal conditions related to ending foreign military presence and ensuring what they describe as "full sovereignty."
However, the balance remains delicate, as the American administration seeks – according to analysts' estimates – to avoid internal explosions while simultaneously maintaining a government capable of controlling sovereign decisions and reducing the influence of weapons outside state institutions.

Between Pressure and Understanding

The American move does not seem military as much as it is political and financial, while keeping the door open for understanding with any government that provides practical assurances regarding arms control and organizing relations with Tehran.
In light of regional tensions and American-Iranian negotiations, decision-makers in Washington fear that Iraq may turn into a complete pivot for a single axis, which the administration considers an unacceptable strategic option.

Iraq Facing a New Test

Iraq remains in front of a complex equation: forming a government capable of absorbing external pressures without exploding internal balances, and maintaining vital economic and security partnerships in a turbulent regional environment.
The most pressing question now is:
Will Baghdad succeed in managing this delicate balance, or will the rising pressures redraw the map of alliances within the Iraqi political scene?