International Energy Agency Raises Oil Demand Forecast for 2025 Driven by OPEC+ Decision

The International Energy Agency has adjusted its global oil forecasts for the next two years, raising its estimates for global crude demand growth for 2025, following the OPEC+ alliance's decision to increase production.

According to the agency's monthly report, released today, Thursday, September 11, "the agency has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth to 740,000 barrels per day in 2025, compared to the previous forecast of an increase of 680,000 barrels per day."

As for the estimates for 2026, the agency, based in Paris, kept its forecast unchanged at 700,000 barrels per day.

The recent OPEC+ decision also reflected on global supply forecasts, as the agency predicted that "supply will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 after the latest increase from OPEC+ (up from 2.5 million barrels per day)."

However, the agency clarified that the actual expected increase in production will be limited, estimating that "the net increase from September to October in OPEC+ oil production will be 40,000 barrels per day, which is less than the quota increase of 137,000 b/d," pointing to "the production capacity limits of some members."

In terms of trading, prices saw a slight decline, as "Brent crude futures fell by about 0.3% to $67.28 per barrel. U.S. crude futures also decreased by 0.4% to $63.43 per barrel."