The OECD Raises Global Growth Forecasts for 2025
The OECD has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2%, compared to the June estimates of 2.9%, indicating that this move comes in response to the greater-than-expected resilience shown by many economies since the beginning of the year. However, the organization kept its growth forecast for 2026 at 2.9%, a rate that reflects a significant slowdown compared to the 3.3% growth recorded in 2024.
Regarding major economies, the organization raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2025 to 1.8% compared to 1.6% previously, with this growth expected to slow to 1.5% in 2026. Despite this positive adjustment, the expected rate "remains well below the 2.8% rate in 2024."
The report attributed the strength of the U.S. performance to the role of "AI-related investment," while emphasizing that "financial policies" in China helped offset the effects of "weak real estate markets and trade challenges."
On the other hand, the organization warned of "significant risks" to the global economic outlook, as the impact of high tariffs and policy uncertainty remains a major concern. Data revealed that "U.S. tariffs on imports rose to 19.5% by the end of August, the highest since 1933, with tariffs on some exports reaching 50%."
The organization commented on this situation by stating that "the full impact of the tariffs has not yet been felt," explaining that companies have absorbed some of them, but their effects "have started to reflect on consumer spending and the labor market," with signs of a slowdown in labor markets manifested in "rising unemployment rates and a decline in job vacancies in some countries," alongside a slowing pace of inflation decline.
In a related context, the organization lowered its inflation forecasts, expecting the rate in G20 countries to reach 3.4% in 2025, down from 3.6% in the June forecasts, and also lowered the forecast for the U.S. to 2.7% from 3.2% previously.
The report also highlighted additional risks related to "the potential return of inflationary pressures and rising concerns about public financial conditions and asset repricing in markets," warning of "financial stability risks" associated with "the rise and volatility of cryptocurrency valuations." Conversely, the organization noted that "the removal of trade barriers and the accelerated development of AI technologies" could represent a real opportunity to positively enhance global growth prospects.
