Israel Warns: The Likelihood of a New War in Lebanon Rises Amid Escalating Tensions

Despite the cautious optimism that prevailed at the "mechanism" committee meeting yesterday, Friday, in the Naqoura area of southern Lebanon, Israeli warnings about the possibility of a new war have not ceased.

An Israeli senior official confirmed, according to Yedioth Ahronoth, that "the likelihood of renewed war is high," while a prominent American official praised the "promising indicators" in Lebanon, referring to the improved performance of the Lebanese armed forces.

Tel Aviv stated that it informed Washington that the strengthening of Hezbollah's military capabilities would not be allowed to continue, especially with the expiration of the American deadline set for the end of December to disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River.

At the fifteenth meeting of the committee overseeing the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, the focus was on how to facilitate the return of displaced persons to their homes and address civilian issues, in an attempt to avoid a resurgence of fighting if the deadline for disarming the party is not adhered to, according to Reuters.

This meeting is part of U.S. efforts to expand the scope of talks between the two sides to go beyond merely monitoring the ceasefire set for 2024, in line with U.S. President Donald Trump's agenda to solidify peace agreements in the Middle East.

Attending the meeting were Israeli National Security Adviser Yossi Draznin, another senior official from the Israeli Security Council Yuri Resnik, along with representatives from UNIFIL, former Lebanese ambassador to Washington Simon Karam, three officers from the Lebanese army, and U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus.

The United States is strongly pressuring Israel and Lebanon to avoid the collapse of the ceasefire agreement that came into effect in November 2024, amid the belief of several Israeli officials that confrontation with Hezbollah has become more likely.

The ceasefire agreement stipulates the cessation of hostilities, the withdrawal of Hezbollah to the north of the Litani River, and its disarmament throughout Lebanon, along with the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the positions it advanced to during the last war.

However, Israel continues to carry out airstrikes on Lebanese areas, asserting that they aim to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its military capabilities after its significant losses in the previous war.