Global Oil Crisis: Goldman Sachs Predicts Prices Above $100
Concerns have increased in global energy markets following a warning from Goldman Sachs that continued disruptions in oil supplies from the Gulf region could push oil prices above $100 per barrel in the coming period, if the war continues and production and export activities are affected.
These warnings come at a sensitive time for energy markets, as estimates from financial and consulting institutions indicate that a significant portion of oil production could halt in a short period if military tensions in the region persist.
In this context, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted on Tuesday at the possibility of the U.S. Navy escorting oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary, in a move aimed at protecting maritime trade and ensuring the continued flow of energy to global markets.
He also revealed that he directed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance guarantees against political risks that commercial vessels may face in the Gulf.
For its part, JP Morgan explained that filling oil storage facilities may take some time before companies are forced to shut down some oil fields.
According to its estimates, more than 3 million barrels per day of oil production could stop by Sunday if current conditions persist, while the volume of disrupted production could rise to more than 5 million barrels per day if the war continues for about two and a half weeks.
In another analysis, Energy Aspects indicated that Saudi Arabia may be able to withstand the shock to the energy sector longer than some neighboring countries, thanks to its alternative options for transporting oil.
It clarified that the Kingdom can divert millions of barrels daily through the East-West pipeline that transports oil from the Eastern region to the Red Sea, allowing it to export away from the Strait of Hormuz.
The institution also pointed out that current prices in the markets largely reflect expectations of a short-term supply crisis, but continued disruptions could quickly change this estimate.
In the same context, Wood Mackenzie warned that shutting down oil fields is a very costly option.
It cited the Rumaila field in Iraq as an example, noting that its shutdown could lead to losses of nearly $2.4 billion monthly in revenues.
The company added that restarting fields after closure could take between one to two weeks if the shutdown is limited, but a longer production halt may require additional maintenance and re-equipping of some wells before resuming pumping.
These warnings reflect the rising anxiety in global markets about the potential for widespread disruptions to oil supplies in the Gulf, which could open the door to a significant jump in prices if the crisis persists or the conflict expands.
