A Long Drought Series Ended One of the Oldest Civilizations: A Recent Study Redefines the End of the Indus Valley
November 30, 2025764 ViewsRead Time: 2 minutes
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A recent scientific study conducted by a team of paleoclimate scientists from India and the United States revealed that the Indus Valley civilization did not mysteriously vanish as previously thought, but was a victim of successive waves of severe and prolonged droughts that sometimes lasted over a century.
According to research published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, the tributaries of the Indus River experienced sharp contractions or temporarily ceased to flow between 3.4 and 4.4 thousand years ago, amid a noticeable decline in rainfall rates and a gradual increase in temperatures.
The researchers noted that they relied on integrating paleoclimate data extracted from the isotopic analysis of cave stalagmites in the Sahyadri and Maumlu regions of India, alongside results from advanced climate simulations to depict an accurate picture of weather fluctuations during that critical period in the civilization's history.
Professor Balaghi Rajagopalan from the University of Colorado, who supervised the research team, explained that the lack of climatic data in the past hindered understanding the true reasons behind the decline of the Indus Valley civilization, before this study allowed for the aggregation and analysis of all indicators within a unified model revealing a recurring pattern of long and severe droughts.
The results showed that rainfall rates declined by between 10 and 20 percent, coinciding with an increase in average temperatures of about half a degree Celsius, which scientists attribute to weakened monsoon winds during that period. The study also recorded four major drought waves, each covering between 65 and 91 percent of the valley's area, with one lasting over 85 years.
The last drought wave, which extended for about 113 years starting around 3,530 years ago, coincided with the final collapse of the major cities of the Indus Valley civilization and the disappearance of its urban centers, suggesting that its inhabitants were forced to migrate to more temperate and humid areas within the Indian subcontinent.
The Indus Valley civilization is one of the oldest and most significant human civilizations, alongside ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia, having emerged around five thousand years ago along the banks of the Indus River at the current borders between India and Pakistan, reaching its peak between 2200 and 1900 BC, before entering a phase of rapid decline that ended with its disappearance without leaving a clear explanation... until today.
According to research published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, the tributaries of the Indus River experienced sharp contractions or temporarily ceased to flow between 3.4 and 4.4 thousand years ago, amid a noticeable decline in rainfall rates and a gradual increase in temperatures.
The researchers noted that they relied on integrating paleoclimate data extracted from the isotopic analysis of cave stalagmites in the Sahyadri and Maumlu regions of India, alongside results from advanced climate simulations to depict an accurate picture of weather fluctuations during that critical period in the civilization's history.
Professor Balaghi Rajagopalan from the University of Colorado, who supervised the research team, explained that the lack of climatic data in the past hindered understanding the true reasons behind the decline of the Indus Valley civilization, before this study allowed for the aggregation and analysis of all indicators within a unified model revealing a recurring pattern of long and severe droughts.
The results showed that rainfall rates declined by between 10 and 20 percent, coinciding with an increase in average temperatures of about half a degree Celsius, which scientists attribute to weakened monsoon winds during that period. The study also recorded four major drought waves, each covering between 65 and 91 percent of the valley's area, with one lasting over 85 years.
The last drought wave, which extended for about 113 years starting around 3,530 years ago, coincided with the final collapse of the major cities of the Indus Valley civilization and the disappearance of its urban centers, suggesting that its inhabitants were forced to migrate to more temperate and humid areas within the Indian subcontinent.
The Indus Valley civilization is one of the oldest and most significant human civilizations, alongside ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia, having emerged around five thousand years ago along the banks of the Indus River at the current borders between India and Pakistan, reaching its peak between 2200 and 1900 BC, before entering a phase of rapid decline that ended with its disappearance without leaving a clear explanation... until today.
