Oscar Race.. Chalamet and DiCaprio Lose 'BAFTA' and Bets Change
February 23, 2026153 ViewsRead Time: 2 minutes
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This year's British Academy of Film and Television Arts awards witnessed shocking surprises that disrupted Oscar predictions, as both Timothy Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio lost in the Best Actor race, in a result considered shocking compared to prior expectations.
Unexpected Win Turns the Tables
The major surprise was the crowning of Robert Aramayo as Best Actor for the film I Swear, despite the fact that the film has not yet been released outside the UK, and Aramayo is not even nominated for the Oscars, raising questions about the awards trajectory this season.
Over the past years, the BAFTAs have been considered a nearly decisive indicator of Oscar results, as 10 of the last 11 winners in London later won the Oscar.
Setback for Chalamet.. and Opportunity for Others
Chalamet, nominated for Marty Supreme, was the favorite after winning the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice, but his loss in London weakened his position, especially with the notable overlap between BAFTA and Oscar Academy members.
The result opened the door for prominent competitors, including DiCaprio for One Battle After Another, and Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, in addition to Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent.
SAG Bets and Open Scenarios
Chalamet is now relying on the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award to revive his hopes, although winning it for the second consecutive year seems an unusual precedent. Observers recall Brendan Fraser's experience in 2023, when his SAG win paved the way to the Oscars.
Surprises in Supporting Categories
The shocks were not limited to the Best Actor category; Wonmi Mosaku won Best Supporting Actress for Sinners, marking her first major win this season, while Sean Penn snagged Best Supporting Actor for One Battle After Another.
Meanwhile, the path seems clear for Jessie Buckley for Hamnet to win the Oscar, while director Paul Thomas Anderson is expected to make a strong presence at the upcoming ceremony.
This year's awards season confirms that the Oscar race is no longer determined by predictions, but by surprises that redraw the map until the last moment.
