Oil Prices Steady Amid Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran Talks
Oil prices stabilized on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, in a charged atmosphere of tension and anticipation, as investors assess the risks of supply disruptions following Iranian naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz, just ahead of anticipated nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva.
The markets appeared cautious, as geopolitical developments in one of the world's most important energy arteries present traders with a complex equation between the possibilities of de-escalation and the risks of escalation.
* Price Movements
Brent crude futures fell by 0.2% to $68.59 per barrel at 01:06 GMT, after rising 1.3% in Monday's session, according to Reuters.
In contrast, West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 84 cents, or 1.34%, to reach $63.73 per barrel.
It is noteworthy that this movement reflects the entirety of Monday's fluctuations, amid the absence of settlement prices due to the "Presidents' Day" holiday in the United States.
* Trump's Statements Heighten Sensitivity
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would participate "indirectly" in the scheduled talks in Geneva, indicating his belief that Tehran wants to reach an agreement.
However, his statements were not devoid of an escalatory tone, as he said earlier this week that regime change in Iran "would be the best thing that could happen," adding more tension to the atmosphere ahead of the talks.
* The Strait of Hormuz .. The Global Energy Artery
Iran began military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, a vital maritime corridor through which a significant portion of Gulf oil exports pass to global markets, especially Asia.
Iran, along with other OPEC member countries, exports most of its crude oil through this strategic corridor, making any tension there a direct factor in moving prices.
* Risk Premium .. Between Dissipation and Ignition
ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes noted that the market remains in a state of instability due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
He explained that any de-escalation in the Middle East or tangible progress on the Ukrainian issue could quickly lead to the dissipation of the "risk premium" added to oil prices.
Conversely, any negative outcomes or new escalation could push prices into a new wave of increases.
* The Bigger Picture
This anticipation comes at a time when energy markets are witnessing notable transformations, including China reaching record levels in its purchases of Russian oil, which redraws the global crude flow map and increases market sensitivity to any potential supply disruptions.
In conclusion, oil prices stand at a crossroads:
Between hopes for diplomacy in Geneva, and fears of escalation in one of the world's most important maritime corridors,
the markets are on alert … as any development could flip the equation in moments.
