2026: The Year of Major Sorting in the World of Artificial Intelligence: Who Will Rise and Who Will Fall?

After years of media hype and grand promises, it seems that the world of artificial intelligence is approaching a moment of truth.

According to a recent report published by Forbes, 2026 will not be a year of awe as much as it will be a year of decisive action, where the contours of global leadership in this highly competitive sector will be defined, amid funding pressures, rapid innovation, and escalating geopolitical conflict.

Here are the seven major transformations expected to reshape the global AI landscape and potentially shift the balance of power between companies and countries:

1. Anthropic Approaches the Stock Market While OpenAI Hesitates
With the enormous rise in development costs, Anthropic is likely to be the first major AI lab to go public, benefiting from a clearer business model, while OpenAI continues to rely on private funding and delay its entry into financial markets.

2. Mysterious Leaks May Shake AI Giants
The mystery surrounding the Safe Superintelligence (SSI) lab may not last long, as predictions suggest leaks about its research approach, which could prompt major global labs to reassess their strategies and change their development paths.

3. China Narrows the Gap in the Chip Race
Despite U.S. restrictions, China is expected to make gradual progress in developing AI chips locally. While competition with Nvidia remains distant, Beijing is charting a long-term path toward technological independence.

4. The Great Dream of General Artificial Intelligence Diminishes
After a wave of optimism, discussions about the imminent arrival of General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) are fading, replaced by a practical focus on real-world applications and direct economic returns.

5. An Accounting Crisis Looms
The obsolescence of AI chips and the rapid aging of hardware could turn into a real financial crisis, with potential impacts on corporate profits and market valuations amid rising debt.

6. Custom Chips Move from Idea to Execution
2026 may witness the launch of actual projects to design custom chips, led by AI labs and robotics companies, driven by advances in hardware design automation.

7. OpenAI Faces Potential Leadership Changes
As competition intensifies and pressures mount to transition to a public company, OpenAI may undergo a restructuring of its leadership hierarchy, which could include significant changes in executive positions.