Oil Prices Stabilize Amid Rising U.S. Inventories and End of Summer Demand Season

Global oil prices stabilized today, Wednesday, August 13, supported by data showing an increase in U.S. crude inventories, while analysts indicate the approaching end of the summer demand season.

Brent crude futures recorded a slight increase of 0.14% to reach $66.21 per barrel, after declining by 0.8% during the previous session. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate futures remained stable at $63.22 per barrel, recovering from a previous drop of 1.2%.

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday showed an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 1.52 million barrels during the past week, along with a decline in gasoline inventories and a slight increase in distillate stocks.

The market is now awaiting the U.S. Energy Information Administration report scheduled to be released later today, where analysts in a Reuters survey expect a decrease in inventories by about 300,000 barrels. Any decline in the data could be interpreted as a sign that consumption has peaked during the summer driving season, which runs from late May to early September, potentially prompting refiners to scale back operations.

In related news, reports from OPEC and the Energy Information Administration forecast an increase in global oil production this year, which puts pressure on prices. However, forecasts also indicate a potential decline in U.S. production by 2026, despite expectations of a record increase in 2025 to 13.41 million barrels per day due to improved well productivity.

OPEC also raised its monthly report's forecast for global oil demand in 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 100,000 barrels from previous estimates, while keeping its forecast for this year unchanged.

On the geopolitical front, the White House on Tuesday lowered expectations for a quick ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which may keep sanctions on Russian oil exports in place, supporting prices.

In this regard, Daniel Hynes, an expert at ANZ, commented: "Trump has lowered the ceiling of expectations for his meeting with Putin... but expectations for additional sanctions on Russian oil continue to decline."