Prospects of the US-China Summit

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Madrid for the fourth round of negotiations. These talks could pave the way for a potential visit by Trump to Beijing before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum scheduled to be held in South Korea at the end of October. However, limited progress in bilateral negotiations reduces the chances of a summit in the Chinese capital, making a meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit more likely according to analysts.
One of the main obstacles facing the negotiations is the US insistence on China taking strict action against the export of chemicals used in fentanyl manufacturing, while Beijing wants to link any actions to the cancellation of US tariffs imposed on its products. This negotiating deadlock reflects the deep complexities in the bilateral relationship.
International relations experts point out that Beijing may hesitate to host a major summit for Trump without achieving tangible breakthroughs, especially after hosting other world leaders like Putin and Kim Jong Un with grand celebrations. Additionally, the tight timeline before the APEC summit makes it difficult to achieve a comprehensive trade agreement that justifies a presidential visit to Beijing.
On the other hand, observers believe that Trump may prefer to hold the summit in Beijing to take advantage of the ceremonial protocol that characterizes presidential visits there, especially after the impressive receptions other leaders received. However, without achieving tangible results, such a visit may appear to be merely a media event without real substance.
Additional challenges include rising tensions over other issues, including Trump's call for NATO to impose sanctions on China for its dealings with Russian oil, US actions to blacklist Chinese companies on export lists, and Chinese anti-dumping investigations on US chips.
It seems that the decision to hold the summit and whether it will take place in Beijing or on the sidelines of the APEC summit will largely depend on balancing the desire for tangible results with the desire to leverage the symbolic aspects of diplomacy. What is clear is that US-China relations remain one of the most complex and important international relationships at present, as any development in them will have wide global implications.