The relationship between Turkey and Israel is escalating and the possibility of direct confrontation is likely
August 9, 202570 ViewsRead Time: 3 minutes
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The Turkish National Intelligence Academy revealed an extensive study that draws lessons from the recent Israeli-Iranian war, with a clear focus on how Turkey can apply these lessons in a potential confrontation with Israel. This study raises significant questions about the future of Turkish-Israeli relations, especially in light of the recent escalation between Ankara and Tel Aviv against the backdrop of events in Palestine, Syria, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
After years of intermittent tension with Israel, Turkey has begun to show unprecedented military and intelligence readiness for a potential confrontation, driven by several factors such as the escalation in Gaza, the dispute over gas rights, and maritime borders with Greece and Cyprus. The Israeli-Greek alliance and the increasing military and intelligence cooperation are viewed in Ankara as an "existential threat."
The Turkish study focused on several key points from the Israeli-Iranian war, seeing that Turkey may face a similar scenario, with the most notable lessons being:
The importance of air power: Israel's air superiority was decisive, which explains Turkey's relentless pursuit to purchase new F-16 fighters and develop its drones (such as "Bayraktar" and "Akinci").
Hybrid warfare: Israel succeeded in combining air strikes, cyber attacks, and information warfare. Turkey seeks to enhance its capabilities in these areas.
The study outlined three main scenarios that may apply to Turkey and Israel: one being the return to negotiations, which is a weak possibility under the current escalation. The continuation of tension is the most likely scenario, with indirect confrontations (cyber, intelligence, through proxies in Syria and Lebanon). As for a full-scale war, it is not an unlikely possibility if the conflict escalates in the Eastern Mediterranean or Gaza.
Turkey is preparing militarily by updating its air force with F-16 fighters, seeking to purchase 40 new aircraft from the United States, and modernizing its current fleet. In addition to Eurofighter Typhoons and discussions with Britain and Germany to compensate for the loss of the F-35 program. And working on developing domestic hypersonic missiles (such as "Taygun") to counter Israeli superiority.
Strengthening air defense and acquiring the Russian S-400 system.
Working on local systems (Hispar) and accelerating development to create an integrated air shield. Regarding cyber warfare and intelligence, it is likely that specialized cyber units will be established to counter Israeli cyber attacks. In addition to enhancing the counter-espionage network, especially after accusations that Mossad infiltrated Turkish security agencies.
The Turkish study does not expect a direct war soon, but it warns that Israel may launch preemptive strikes if it feels that Turkey poses a real threat, especially regarding the gas dispute in the Mediterranean, as any escalation here could ignite a military confrontation.
Igniting a direct war remains unlikely in the near term, due to the high economic costs for both countries. And the pressures from allies (the U.S. on NATO regarding Turkey, and the West on Israel). Proxy war options (such as Syria and Lebanon) remain preferred by the parties.
However, if the current escalation continues, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean or Gaza, Turkish-Israeli relations may enter a new phase of direct confrontation.
After years of intermittent tension with Israel, Turkey has begun to show unprecedented military and intelligence readiness for a potential confrontation, driven by several factors such as the escalation in Gaza, the dispute over gas rights, and maritime borders with Greece and Cyprus. The Israeli-Greek alliance and the increasing military and intelligence cooperation are viewed in Ankara as an "existential threat."
The Turkish study focused on several key points from the Israeli-Iranian war, seeing that Turkey may face a similar scenario, with the most notable lessons being:
The importance of air power: Israel's air superiority was decisive, which explains Turkey's relentless pursuit to purchase new F-16 fighters and develop its drones (such as "Bayraktar" and "Akinci").
Hybrid warfare: Israel succeeded in combining air strikes, cyber attacks, and information warfare. Turkey seeks to enhance its capabilities in these areas.
The study outlined three main scenarios that may apply to Turkey and Israel: one being the return to negotiations, which is a weak possibility under the current escalation. The continuation of tension is the most likely scenario, with indirect confrontations (cyber, intelligence, through proxies in Syria and Lebanon). As for a full-scale war, it is not an unlikely possibility if the conflict escalates in the Eastern Mediterranean or Gaza.
Turkey is preparing militarily by updating its air force with F-16 fighters, seeking to purchase 40 new aircraft from the United States, and modernizing its current fleet. In addition to Eurofighter Typhoons and discussions with Britain and Germany to compensate for the loss of the F-35 program. And working on developing domestic hypersonic missiles (such as "Taygun") to counter Israeli superiority.
Strengthening air defense and acquiring the Russian S-400 system.
Working on local systems (Hispar) and accelerating development to create an integrated air shield. Regarding cyber warfare and intelligence, it is likely that specialized cyber units will be established to counter Israeli cyber attacks. In addition to enhancing the counter-espionage network, especially after accusations that Mossad infiltrated Turkish security agencies.
The Turkish study does not expect a direct war soon, but it warns that Israel may launch preemptive strikes if it feels that Turkey poses a real threat, especially regarding the gas dispute in the Mediterranean, as any escalation here could ignite a military confrontation.
Igniting a direct war remains unlikely in the near term, due to the high economic costs for both countries. And the pressures from allies (the U.S. on NATO regarding Turkey, and the West on Israel). Proxy war options (such as Syria and Lebanon) remain preferred by the parties.
However, if the current escalation continues, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean or Gaza, Turkish-Israeli relations may enter a new phase of direct confrontation.
