IEA Raises Oil Supply Forecasts and Lowers Demand Outlook for 2025 and 2026
The International Energy Agency announced in its monthly report released today, Friday, July 11, that it has raised its expectations for oil supply growth during the current year, following the recent decision by the "OPEC+" alliance to increase crude production. In contrast, the agency lowered its global oil demand forecasts, pointing to a significant slowdown in consumption in the recent period.
According to the report, the agency expected global oil demand growth to reach around 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, while this growth is expected to reach 720,000 barrels per day in 2026.
On the other hand, the agency raised its forecasts for global crude oil supplies in 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day compared to previous estimates.
This adjustment came after the decision by the "OPEC+" alliance in April to reverse the latest production cut, and accelerate the pace of increases from May to August, leading to additional volumes being pumped into the markets.
Despite this increase in oil supply, the agency noted that the rise in refinery utilization rates to support seasonal travel demand and electricity generation during the summer is helping to reduce the surplus. It also pointed out that "price indicators also suggest that the supply shortage in the actual market is greater than implied by the surplus in our calculations".
