Expert Reports: Israel is Building a Mysterious Nuclear Facility Near Dimona Amid Speculations About Its Nature

Satellite images have revealed extensive construction and significant expansions at a site associated with the Israeli nuclear program, raising widespread speculation among nuclear proliferation experts about the possibility of it being a new nuclear reactor or a weapons assembly facility.

In detail, recent satellite images have detected large-scale construction and expansions at the "Shimon Peres Nuclear Research Center" located in the Negev Desert near the city of Dimona. Expert analysis of the images indicates that this construction may be linked to Israel's long-standing nuclear weapons program, given the site's proximity to the known Dimona nuclear reactor and the absence of civilian energy facilities in the area.

According to the Associated Press, seven experts who examined the images disagreed on the nature of the new construction. Three of them concluded that "the location and size of the area being worked on, and its multi-story appearance, suggest that the most likely interpretation of this construction is the establishment of a new heavy water reactor, which could produce plutonium and another essential material for nuclear weapons."

Conversely, the other four pointed to the possibility that the building is related to a new nuclear weapons assembly facility, with reservations about making a definitive conclusion because "the construction is still in the early stages."

Among the experts, Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, commented: "It could likely be a reactor - this size is circumstantial, but that is the nature of these things. It is very hard to imagine it being anything else." Lewis added elsewhere: "It is long, which is expected, because the reactor core would be very long. Based on the location, size, and lack of construction there, it is more likely to be a reactor than anything else."

For his part, Edwin Lyman, a nuclear expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists, acknowledged that the new construction could be a reactor in the shape of a box without a visible containment dome, but emphasized that "Israel does not allow any international inspections or verification of what it is doing, which drives public speculation."

Darrell G. Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, stated: "If it is a heavy water reactor, they are seeking to maintain the capability to produce spent fuel that they can later process to separate plutonium for producing more nuclear weapons. Or they are building a facility to maintain their arsenal or to build additional warheads."

This development comes amid the secrecy surrounding the Israeli nuclear program, as Israel neither confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons. The images captured on July 5 by Planet Labs PBC show extensive construction at a site that was first detected in 2021, where thick concrete walls have been erected, and the site appears to consist of several underground floors.

It is noted that the current Dimona heavy water reactor, which began operation in the 1960s, has exceeded its expected operational lifespan, making replacement or upgrading likely in the near future.

Israel is believed to rely on heavy water reactors, similar to India and Pakistan, to produce materials such as plutonium and tritium necessary for manufacturing nuclear weapons and enhancing their explosive power. The "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" estimates that Israel possesses around 90 nuclear warheads according to its 2022 report.