Trump and Zelensky Summit: Three Possible Scenarios for the Development of the Ukrainian Crisis
August 18, 2025147 ViewsRead Time: 2 minutes
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In a pivotal meeting at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump presents an unconventional vision for a solution in Ukraine, based on three controversial pillars: redrawing the maps through a land swap deal, while the Russian proposal is to maintain Moscow's control over 60% of Donbas and Crimea permanently in exchange for a complete withdrawal from Kherson and 40% of Zaporizhia.
The implementation mechanism will begin with referendums under international supervision and the designation of demilitarized zones 50 km deep.
The security guarantees will be a hybrid model consisting of American-European protection without NATO membership, comprising rapid deterrent forces, advanced air defense systems, and a joint operations room in Kyiv. The restrictions to be imposed include a ban on deploying long-range missiles and limiting the number of military exercises.
U.S. forces will be present in two phases: the first phase will involve 5,000 troops on the front line and a joint command with European countries, and the second phase will include forward bases in Odessa and Kharkiv, along with military investments worth $2 billion.
The expected risks begin with the constitutional loophole, as Zelensky may need the approval of the Ukrainian parliament, and the security paradox could turn the "peace" areas into new tension points, while the time bet is a tight timeline before the 2026 U.S. elections.
The regional repercussions will have a direct impact on the Syria file (potential Russian-American understandings) and the Moldova crisis (Transnistria) and the balance of power in the Caucasus.
The most likely scenario may be a framework agreement that freezes the conflict without resolving it fundamentally, while keeping the door open for new escalation if the monitoring mechanisms fail. The final decision may depend on Zelensky's willingness to pay the political price domestically.
The implementation mechanism will begin with referendums under international supervision and the designation of demilitarized zones 50 km deep.
The security guarantees will be a hybrid model consisting of American-European protection without NATO membership, comprising rapid deterrent forces, advanced air defense systems, and a joint operations room in Kyiv. The restrictions to be imposed include a ban on deploying long-range missiles and limiting the number of military exercises.
U.S. forces will be present in two phases: the first phase will involve 5,000 troops on the front line and a joint command with European countries, and the second phase will include forward bases in Odessa and Kharkiv, along with military investments worth $2 billion.
The expected risks begin with the constitutional loophole, as Zelensky may need the approval of the Ukrainian parliament, and the security paradox could turn the "peace" areas into new tension points, while the time bet is a tight timeline before the 2026 U.S. elections.
The regional repercussions will have a direct impact on the Syria file (potential Russian-American understandings) and the Moldova crisis (Transnistria) and the balance of power in the Caucasus.
The most likely scenario may be a framework agreement that freezes the conflict without resolving it fundamentally, while keeping the door open for new escalation if the monitoring mechanisms fail. The final decision may depend on Zelensky's willingness to pay the political price domestically.
