The American Paper Between Beirut and Damascus: Syrian Waiting and Lebanese Bets

In a case where regional and international threads are intertwined, Lebanon is still waiting for an official Syrian response to the "American paper" approved by Najib Mikati's government last August, which aims to establish a ceasefire with Israel, limit weapons to the state, and demarcate borders. However, it is noteworthy that Beirut, which accepted the paper, finds itself alone in this acceptance, while Damascus remains silent, and Israel maneuvers waiting for additional guarantees.
The paper presented by American envoy Tom Barak includes three main chapters:
Border Demarcation: Formation of a tripartite committee (Lebanese - Syrian - UN) to demarcate land and maritime borders and exclusive economic zones, with support from the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, and the United Nations.
Drug Combat: Launching a joint Lebanese-Syrian mechanism to combat drug smuggling, a sensitive issue given international reports about the spread of smuggling networks across the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Weapon Limitation: Disarming "Hezbollah" and handing over its weapons to the Lebanese army, a point that has not been explicitly stated but constitutes a major obstacle.
According to Lebanese government sources, Damascus has not informed Beirut of any official position so far. This silence reflects several calculations:
Regional Bets: Syria prefers to wait to know the final Israeli position before committing to any agreement.
The Sensitive Drug File: Damascus may not be ready for full cooperation in combating drugs, especially with reports of the involvement of former Syrian figures in these networks.
Coordination with "Hezbollah": Any agreement regarding borders or drugs must have the party's approval, which controls the border areas from the Lebanese side.
Dr. Sami Nader, director of the "Mashreq Center for Strategic Studies," points out that solving border issues with Syria is linked to resolving the issue of limiting "Hezbollah's" weapons, as the Lebanese-Syrian border areas are fully controlled by the party. This means that any border demarcation or establishment of a drug combat mechanism first requires the Lebanese army to control the areas.
Saudi Arabia played a pivotal role last March when it sponsored an agreement between the Lebanese and Syrian defense ministers, emphasizing the importance of border demarcation. However, this agreement remained ink on paper due to security and political complications. Today, Saudi Arabia and the United States are considered the main mediators, but their success depends on their ability to convince Damascus to cooperate, as well as breaking the stalemate in the Lebanese internal security file.
Despite the official visits made by Lebanese Prime Ministers Najib Mikati and Nawaf Salam to Damascus after the fall of Assad's regime, relations between the two countries remain frozen. Damascus has not yet appointed a new ambassador to Beirut, and the planned visit of the Syrian foreign minister has not yet been determined. This stalemate hinders any progress on outstanding issues, especially the files of displaced persons and detained Syrians in Lebanon.
The American-Saudi mediators will continue to pressure Damascus to announce its position on the paper, especially since Washington has linked lifting sanctions on Syria to cooperation in the security and border files.
The Role of the Lebanese Army: The army will soon present its plan for limiting weapons, which will be a real test of the Lebanese government's seriousness in disarming "Hezbollah".
Israel will require strict security guarantees before agreeing to any border demarcation, especially regarding the presence of "Hezbollah" on the border.
The game is no longer limited to Beirut and Damascus, but has become part of a complex regional equation. Success requires more than just international pressure.