Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Between Western Promises and Moscow's Fears
September 4, 2025128 ViewsRead Time: 3 minutes
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As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, discussions are intensifying in Western capitals about the form of security guarantees that can be offered to Kyiv in the post-war phase. European officials believe that new American offers to provide air and intelligence support represent the "crucial step" that Europe is waiting for to justify sending troops to Ukrainian territory. However, these ambitious plans are stalled by one fixed reality: the absence of any indication of Russia's willingness to stop fighting.
For months, France and Britain have been leading a European coalition seeking to formulate long-term security arrangements for Ukraine, including the deployment of forces on the ground. Repeated visits by European delegations to the White House have resulted in preliminary approval from the Trump administration to provide support that includes additional air defense capabilities, and possibly assistance in enforcing a no-fly zone, along with surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. However, American officials warn that "an offer is different from approval," and that the final decision has not yet been made.
The real dilemma lies in Russia's rigid stance. The Kremlin firmly rejects any presence of European or NATO forces in Ukraine, even if they are not officially operating under the alliance's banner. Instead, Moscow proposes Chinese peacekeeping forces as an alternative, a suggestion that has been met with lukewarm responses in Western capitals.
The European plans include securing the skies over Ukraine and the Black Sea, deploying a "deterrent" force on the ground away from the front lines, along with a training element to rebuild the Ukrainian army and transform it into what European leaders describe as a "steel hedgehog." French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that European defense ministers have completed "highly classified" plans, emphasizing that the question now is "Russia's sincerity."
However, these European ambitions face serious challenges. American support is conditional on "Europeans taking the lead," and some European capitals are facing internal dilemmas for fear that participation could become a political burden if it endangers soldiers' lives. Germany, for example, has not made final commitments despite its open rhetoric, while discussions are still ongoing in Paris and London about the extent of participation and how to respond to any potential Russian breach.
More importantly, agreeing on security measures in the short term could strengthen Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's position if he enters into peace negotiations with Moscow that may require painful territorial concessions. Security guarantees could be the card that gives Kyiv some security in the face of an uncertain future.
Real peace requires more than security plans; it requires genuine political will from all parties and a readiness to agree on compromises that stop the bloodshed and open the way for a more stable future for Ukraine and the entire region.
For months, France and Britain have been leading a European coalition seeking to formulate long-term security arrangements for Ukraine, including the deployment of forces on the ground. Repeated visits by European delegations to the White House have resulted in preliminary approval from the Trump administration to provide support that includes additional air defense capabilities, and possibly assistance in enforcing a no-fly zone, along with surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. However, American officials warn that "an offer is different from approval," and that the final decision has not yet been made.
The real dilemma lies in Russia's rigid stance. The Kremlin firmly rejects any presence of European or NATO forces in Ukraine, even if they are not officially operating under the alliance's banner. Instead, Moscow proposes Chinese peacekeeping forces as an alternative, a suggestion that has been met with lukewarm responses in Western capitals.
The European plans include securing the skies over Ukraine and the Black Sea, deploying a "deterrent" force on the ground away from the front lines, along with a training element to rebuild the Ukrainian army and transform it into what European leaders describe as a "steel hedgehog." French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that European defense ministers have completed "highly classified" plans, emphasizing that the question now is "Russia's sincerity."
However, these European ambitions face serious challenges. American support is conditional on "Europeans taking the lead," and some European capitals are facing internal dilemmas for fear that participation could become a political burden if it endangers soldiers' lives. Germany, for example, has not made final commitments despite its open rhetoric, while discussions are still ongoing in Paris and London about the extent of participation and how to respond to any potential Russian breach.
More importantly, agreeing on security measures in the short term could strengthen Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's position if he enters into peace negotiations with Moscow that may require painful territorial concessions. Security guarantees could be the card that gives Kyiv some security in the face of an uncertain future.
Real peace requires more than security plans; it requires genuine political will from all parties and a readiness to agree on compromises that stop the bloodshed and open the way for a more stable future for Ukraine and the entire region.
